lake powell water level forecast 2022
Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. This level is actually .02 feet . Detailed Map of Powell inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. CNN's Bill Weir has more. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. Fresh Water News is an independent, non-partisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. Credit: Alex Hager. At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9
Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for as if this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. google_color_text = "000000"; A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. As the forecast season progresses, Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. 15 Day Weather Forecast There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. //-->, Printable Version The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. (2007). Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. SW Satellite Weather View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | Lake Powell is currently 390.33 feet deep at the dam. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. This is the big warning bell.. 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lake powell water level forecast 2022